Commuting Zones As A COVID-19 Exit Strategy

Fear and Fatigue Barriers

FEAR has overtaken the logic that should be connected to our strategies in dealing with this pandemic.

1. We are afraid that if we contract the virus, we will possibly die.
2. We are afraid that if we contract the virus, our family members will get sick from us, and die.
3. We are afraid that we will be the source of a spike in our community.
4. We are afraid to disregard the current federal or state strategies that are focused on a continued policy of social distancing/separation/prevention.
5. We are afraid that we’ll get sick and miss work, suffering more economic hardship.
6. We are afraid to gather with friends, family, or faith community members due to our newly minted social anxiety about health and safety.

At the same time, we are FATIGUED.

1. Tired of hearing, watching, and reading about this virus.
2. Tired of trying to discern the trustworthiness of our information sources about the virus.
3. Tired of watching our political leaders posture and prance divisively over talking points that sling mud at their opponents, or cast a positive light on their over-confident speeches.
4. Tired of sacrificing our liberty for the sake of federal, state, or municipal mandates that are still based on strategies related to our first mitigation stage.
5. Tired of not being able to work, and feeling helpless to do anything about it.
6. Tired of wearing a mask.
7. Tired of placing all of our plans on hold.

Footprints and Zones

Our footprints represent our “commuting zone”. 

I essence this is the social and economic circle that we operate within.

As I pointed out in an earlier blog post,  I believe our country should embrace a policy that divides our country into commuting zones that would be either designated as “green zones”(unrestricted)” or “red zones”(restricted) based upon COVID-19 activity in those zones. Mathematically, linking green zones would eventually eliminate red zones.

Green and Red Zones

Due to multiple factors,  some green zones will inevitably have a resurgence of infections, and thus cease to be “green.”When this happens, the green labeling of the entire area is lost, and it goes back to the previous red zone lock-down position.  Using contact tracing and quarantining, new cases can then be confined and monitored, until the inhabitants of a commuting zone meet the green zone criteria.

This zoning strategy will help avoid a large surge of the virus this fall in our country.  A surge that will be the inevitable outcome of our current approach.

Now is time to pivot and begin a zoned approach as our exit strategy with COVID-19.

Under-Documented Infections

In the US the rates for asymptomatic infections are estimated to be 2-3x more than the current documented national rate of 3%.

This higher percentage than the officially documented infection rate is due to two primary factors.

1. Testing Issues. Due to supply chain issues, antigen testing has been limited primarily to the symptomatic, and at times, even only the severely symptomatic.   In regards to antibody testing, rapid tests have not met the standard for reliability, and serum testing is expensive and difficult to deploy in a mass strategy.
2. Asymptomatic infections are common. We know for instance that studies are showing  OB patients, pediatric patients, and the general population demonstrate asymptomatic infections at higher levels than even our best studies can document.

Between symptomatic and asymptomatic, our country may be as high as a 10% infection rate for the country at this point.

We need an estimated 60-70% infection rate to reach herd immunity.

Disconnect From Hot Zones

The truth is that while most of the country has experienced disruptive socio-economic effects of our national strategy, outside of several well-documented red hot zones, most of us feel a disconnect between what we see on the news each day, and what we see in our community daily.  This is especially true in non-urban America.

The Big 3 Understand Our Patterns

The truth is that most of us are organized into large and dynamic networks of economic and social structures includes cells and zones of activity.   It represents our movements and interactions. Our social media and device powers are very aware of these movements. Due to the ubiquitous nature smartphones, Facebook, Google, and Amazon know our footprint.

If private businesses have this data, why couldn’t our federal and state governments gain access to the same data?

The majority of Americans exist in defined zones, or footprints of socio-economic patterns that are not fully defined by State or County designations.

Thus our current governance system acts as a barrier to effectively managing the modern movements and vis a’ vis the public health of citizens of our country. This is because the state’s jurisdictions are too broad and are not mapped out effectively to mirror our geosocial commuting zones. States are left in the unenviable position of having to manage all of its citizens through the keyhole of its worst red-zone. It is a recipe for failure when the majority are forced to comply with the minority’s restrictions.

Crazy Cycles

Our current state-driven strategy is most certainly going to lead to a roller-coaster-like cycle within each state. The cycle will follow the stages of

1. Open activity
2. Spike of infection
3. Fearful shelter
4. Shut down activity
5. Recovery
6. Back to re-opening. 

Each cycle will last 2-3 months as we have seen in the first cycle. Each state’s cycle will likely not be uniform to the cycles of the neighboring states. This will have a massive negative effect on regional and national commerce.

It’s only a guess at how many cycles like this we’ll have to endure over the pandemic, but conservatively it will be 3-5.

I call this the COVID-19 Crazy Cycle.

These crazy cycles will unfold in the sports, entertainment, business, education, and government sectors. Start, stop, rinse, and repeat.

With each cycle, our economy, liberty, and well being will be further eroded.  With an estimated 10% immunity associated with each cycle, it will be a miserable and extremely costly journey to hit the 60-70% herd immunity mark.

Freedom Restored

Now is the time to move past the fears and fatigue associated with COVID-19, and unfold a new approach that accounts for our commuting zones. With this strategy, our country can fully emerge from it’s socio-economic slumber as it thoughtfully takes into account the uniqueness of each commuting zone within the US.

This would address the frustrations of millions of Americans who intuitively know they are in green zones, but are forced to live as though they are in red zones.

Time For A New Approach

As it stands, the current federal position of continuing to socially distance while each state interprets its own phased return to normal policies is doomed for failure.  This will especially become evident once the crazy cycles set in throughout the country.  It will lead towards mass responses from each state that will arbitrarily throw each citizen in the same red zone bucket with rigid sheltering.  Frustrations will rise even higher from those who in green zones who are forced to watch their socio-economic lives destroyed, again.

It’s now time to deploy a blended approach that allows for novel strategies while simultaneously protecting the vulnerable.

By doing this, we can avoid the inevitable crazy cycles that will result from our current state directed policy.

The first cycle has been painful enough, can you imagine 3-5 more cycles like it?